From Cold to Code War: Dissecting Security Strategies for the Cyberspace Strategic Environment and Identifying Cyber Risks to the Nuclear Strategic Environment
Keywords:
Left-of-Launch Strategy, Persistent Engagement, Cyber Risks to Nuclear Stability, Nuclear Deterrence, Cyber DeterrenceAbstract
Due to its effectiveness in the Cold War, the security strategy of Nuclear Deterrence has left a seemingly irrefutable imprint on the minds of strategists and policymakers. Nuclear Deterrence is an iteration of conventional deterrence, whereas both enjoy a generalized applicability status in the context of all strategic environments. The ultimate objective of applying these security strategies to any strategic environment is achieving stability. However, as innovative technologies emerge and disparate strategic environments unfold, it becomes critical to evaluate the applicability of nuclear or conventional deterrence as an effective security strategy for these environments. It also becomes critical to analyze the effects of these novel strategic environments on the stability of an international system historically established in all preceding environments. This article explains the variance of approach and mentality when conceptualizing strategic nuclear and strategic cyberspace environments. It then explores the fundamental core differences of these strategic environments which validate such a variance. The article then focuses on how deterrence may not be a viable security strategy for the cyberspace environment before discussing some of the impacts the cyberspace environment may have on the nuclear environment. These impacts have been discussed as risks to the nuclear environment and may have a destabilizing effect on the stability that has been established via nuclear deterrence in the strategic nuclear environment.
References
Abaimov, S., & Ingram, P. (2017). Hacking UK Trident: A Growing Threat. British American Security Information Council. http://basicint.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/HACKING_UK_TRIDENT.pdf
Aslaner, M. (2022). Air-gapped networks: the myth and the reality. Network Security, 22(1). https://doi.org/10.12968/S1353-4858(22)70018-9
Borghard, E. D., & Lonergan, S. W. (2019). Cyber operations as imperfect tools of escalation. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 13(3), 122–45. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26760131
Brodie, B., & Dunn, F. S. (1946). The absolute weapon: Atomic power and world order. Harcourt, Brace, and Company. https://philpapers.org/rec/BROTAW-4
Bruni-Bossio, V., & Willness, C. (2016). The “Kobayashi maru” meeting: High-fidelity experiential learning. Journal of Management Education, 40(5), 619–647. https://doi.org/10.1177/1052562916644284
Burr, W. (2020). Overkill, assured destruction, and the search for nuclear alternatives: U.S. nuclear forces during the cold war. National Security Archive. Retrieved August 5, 2022, from: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2020-05-22/us-nuclear-weapons-posture-during-cold-war-compilation-core-primary-sources
Butt, Y. (2012, November 20). Rockets’ red glare. Foreign Policy. Retrieved August 10, 2022, from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/11/20/rockets-red-glare/
Cain, A. C. (Ed.). (2010). Deterrence in the twenty-first century: Proceedings. Air University Press. https://lccn.loc.gov/2014471722
Colin, S. G. (1998). Nuclear weapons and the revolution in military affairs, In R. J. Harknett, T.V. Paul, J. J. Wirtz, The absolute weapon revisited: Nuclear arms and the emerging international order, pp.99–136. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. The Crystal Ball Effect refers to the lack of ambiguity about whether, in the event of a nuclear war, ultimate destruction would occur or not.
Committee on Armed Services. (2015). United States cybersecurity policy and threats (pp. 114-398). U.S. Senate. Retrieved August 5, 2022, from: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-114shrg22270/html/CHRG-114shrg22270.htm
D'Amato, A. (2013). The meaning of article 2(4) in the U.N. Charter. Revised from D'Amato, A (Ed.), International law: Process and prospect (2nd ed.). SSRN, 13(30). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2321806
Das, D. (2019, November 4). An Indian nuclear power plant suffered a cyberattack. Here’s what you need to know. The Washington Post. Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/11/04/an-indian-nuclear-power-plant-suffered-cyberattack-heres-what-you-need-know/
Denning, D. E. (2015, April 1). Rethinking the cyber domain and deterrence. Joint Force Quarterly, 77. Retrieved August 5, 2022, from: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/JFQ/Joint-Force-Quarterly-77/Article/581864/rethinking-the-cyber-domain-and-deterrence/
Derian, J. D. (1994, September 1). Cyber-deterrence. Wired. Retrieved August 5, 2022, from: https://www.wired.com/1994/09/cyber-deter/
Ellison, R. (2015, March 16). Left of launch. Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. Retrieved August 10, 2022, from: https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/alert/3132/
Fischer, B. B. (2014). Canopy Wing: The U.S. war plan that gave the East Germans goose bumps. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 27(3), 431–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2014.900290
Fischerkeller, M. P. (2021, November 8). Initiative persistence and the consequence for cyber norms. Lawfare. Retrieved March 14, 2022, from: https://www.lawfareblog.com/initiative-persistence-and-consequence-cyber-norms
Fischerkeller, M. P., Goldman, E. O., & Harknett, R. J. (2022). Cyber persistence theory: Redefining National Security in Cyberspace. Oxford University Press. https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=IiNsEAAAQBAJ
Fischerkeller, M. P., & Harknett, R. J. (2017). Deterrence is not a credible strategy for cyberspace. Orbis, 61(3), 381–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2017.05.003
Fischerkeller, M. P., & Harknett, R. J. (2018, November 9). Persistent engagement and tacit bargaining: A path toward constructing norms in cyberspace. Lawfare. Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: https://www.lawfareblog.com/persistent-engagement-and-tacit-bargaining-path-toward-constructing-norms-cyberspace
Fischerkeller, M. P., & Harknett, R. J. (2020). Cyber persistence theory, intelligence contests and strategic competition. Institute for Defense Analyses. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1118679
Fischerkeller, M. P., & Harknett, R. J. (2021). Initiative Persistence as the Central Approach for U.S. Cyber Strategy. Institute for Defense Analyses. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep34847
Franzese, P. W. (2009). Sovereignty in cyberspace: Can it exist. Air Force Law Review, 64(1). Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A212035708/AONE?u=anon~d658fea5&sid=googleScholar&xid=7222ce67
Goldman, E. O. (2022). Paradigm change requires persistence - A difficult lesson to learn. The Cyber Defense Review, 7(1), 113–120. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48642043
Gomez, M. A. (2018). Coercion and cyberspace. Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI). https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/Elcano-ARI102-2018-Gomez-Coercion-Cyberspace-1.pdf
Harknett, R. J. (1996). Information warfare and deterrence. The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, 26 (3), 9. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol26/iss3/9/
Harknett, R. J., & Goldman, E. O. (2016). The search for cyber fundamentals. Journal of Information Warfare 15(2): 81–88. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26487534
Healey, J. (2022, July 14). Cyber operations and Maschmeyer’s subversion trilemma. Lawfare. Retrieved August 8, 2022, from: https://www.lawfareblog.com/cyber-operations-and-maschmeyers-subversion-trilemma
Herrick, D., & Trey, H. (2016). Combating complexity: Offensive cyber capabilities and integrated warfighting. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2845709
Hersman, R. (2020). Wormhole escalation in the new nuclear age. Texas National Security Review, 90(109). http://dx.doi.org/10.26153/tsw/10220
Hjortdal, M. (2011). China’s use of cyber warfare: Espionage meets strategic deterrence. Journal of Strategic Security, 4(2), 1–24. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26463924
Huth, P. K. (1999). Deterrence and international conflict: Empirical findings and theoretical debates. Annual Review of Political Science, 2(1), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.25
Iasiello, E. (2013). Is cyber deterrence an illusory course of action? Journal of Strategic Security, 7(1), 54–67. https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.7.1.5
Jaishankar, D. (2021, April 2). Defending forward: U.S. cyber strategy and its implications for cybersecurity in Asia. ORF America. Retrieved February 18, 2022, from: https://orfamerica.org/newresearch/defending-forward-us-cyber-strategy-and-its-implications-for-cybersecurity-in-asia
Jakobsen, P. V. (2011). Pushing the limits of military coercion theory. International Studies Perspectives 12(2): 153–70. http://www.jstor.org/stable/44218656
Kamiński, M. (2020). Operation “Olympic Games”. Cyber-sabotage as a tool of American intelligence aimed at counteracting the development of Iran’s nuclear programme. Security and Defence Quarterly, 29(2), 63–71. https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/121974
Kaplan, F. (2016, February 19). Wargames’ and cybersecurity’s debt to a Hollywood hack. The New York Times. Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/movies/wargames-and-cybersecuritys-debt-to-a-hollywood-hack.html
Katagiri, N. (2021). Why international law and norms do little in preventing non-state cyber attacks. Journal of Cybersecurity, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyab009
Klare, M. T. (2019, November). Cyber battles, nuclear outcomes? Dangerous new pathways to escalation. Arms Control Association. Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: www.armscontrol.org/act/2019–11/features/cyber-battles-nuclear-outcomes-dangerous-new-pathways-escalation
Libicki, M. C. (2009). Cyber deterrence and Cyberwar. RAND Corporation. Retrieved February 18, 2022, from: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG877.html
Lin, H. (2010). Offensive cyber operations and the use of force. Journal of National Security, Law & Policy, 4(63), 63–86. https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/jnatselp4§ion=9
Lin, H. (2012). Escalation dynamics and conflict termination in cyberspace. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 6(3), 46–70. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26267261
Lin, H. (2022). Cyber threats and nuclear weapons. Stanford University Press. http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=34611
Lin, H., & Zegart, A. (2019). Bytes, bombs, and spies: The strategic dimensions of offensive cyber operations (pp. 388). Brookings Institution Press. https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=eMhyDwAAQBAJ
Lindsay, J. (2019). Cyber operations and nuclear weapons. NAPSNet Special Reports. http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/cyberoperations-and-nuclear-weapons
Long, A., & Brendan, R. G. (2015). Stalking the secure second strike: Intelligence, counterforce, and nuclear strategy. Journal of Strategic Studies, 38(1-2), 38–73. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2014.958150
Lynn, W. F. (2010). Defending a new domain - The Pentagon’s cyberstrategy. Foreign Affairs 89: 97. https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/fora89§ion=79
Martelle, M. (2016, November 30). How understanding cyberspace as a strategic environment should drive cyber capabilities and operations. National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/news/cyber-vault/2019-11-26/cyberspace-strategic-environment
Mason, S. (2021, July 20). A new paradigm: Mutually assured security. War on the Rocks. Retrieved August 7, 2022, from: https://warontherocks.com/2021/07/a-new-paradigm-mutually-assured-security/
Mazarr, M. J., Rhoades, A. L., Beauchamp-Mustafaga, N., Blanc, A. A., Eaton, D., Feistel, K., … Yoder, E. (2022). Disrupting deterrence: Examining the effects of technologies on strategic deterrence in the 21st century. Rand Project Air Force Santa Monica. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1166723
McDade, W. (2014). Attribution, delayed attribution and covert cyber-attack. Under what conditions should the United States publicly acknowledge responsibility for cyber operations? (Publication No. 10945-41417) [Master’s Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School]. Calhoun. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/41417
McKenzie, T. M. (2017). Is cyber deterrence possible? Air University Press. Retrieved March 14, 2022, from: https://media.defense.gov/2017/Nov/20/2001846608/-1/-1/0/CPP_0004_MCKENZIE_CYBER_DETERRENCE.PDF
Morgan, P. M. (2017, July 17). The concept of deterrence and deterrence theory. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Retrieved February 18, 2022, from: https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-572
Nakasone, P. M. (2019, February 2). A cyber force for persistent operations. Joint Force Quarterly. Retrieved February 18, 2022, from: https://www.459arw.afrc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1737519/a-cyber-force-for-persistent-operations/
Nye, J. (2017). Deterrence and dissuasion in cyberspace. International Security, 41(3), 44–71. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00266
Porter, M. E. (1990, March 1). The competitive advantage of nations. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved August 7, 2022, from: https://hbr.org/1990/03/the-competitive-advantage-of-nations
Rhodes, E. (1988). Nuclear weapons and credibility: Deterrence theory beyond rationality. Review of International Studies, 14(1), 45–62. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20097127
Rid, T. (2012). Cyber war will not take place. Journal of Strategic Studies, 35(1), 5-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2011.608939
Ross, C. (2021a). Is it time to forget about cyber deterrence? Air & Space Power Journal, 35(1): 69–73. https://search.proquest.com/openview/fdde55fc4b8c8dc93cd9fbd44b2a2d75/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=26498
Ross, D. (2021b). Game Theory. In N. Edward, & F. Zalta (Eds.), The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University. https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2021/entries/game-theory/
Salik, H., & Zahid, I. R. (2022, January 24). Pakistan and national cyber command: A strategic competitive Enabler (Part I) – OpEd. Eurasia Review. Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: https://www.eurasiareview.com/25012022-pakistan-and-national-cyber-command-a-strategic-competitive-enabler-part-i-oped/
Sanger, D. E., & Broad, W. J. (2017a, March 4). Trump inherits a secret cyberwar against North Korean missiles. The New York Times. Retrieved August 10, 2022, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html
Sanger, D. E., & Broad, W. J. (2017b, November 16). Downing North Korean missiles is hard. So, the U.S. is experimenting. The New York Times. Retrieved August 9, 2022, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/us/politics/north-korea-missile-defense-cyber-drones.html
Schneider, J. G., Goldman, E. O., Warner, M., Nakasone, P. M., Demchak, C. C., Norton, N. A., ... Kollars, N. (2020). Ten Years In: Implementing Strategic Approaches to Cyberspace. U.S. Naval College Digital Commons. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1044&context=uspwc-newport-papers
Schroeder, E., Scott, S., & Herr, T. (2022, June 14). Victory reimagined: Toward a more cohesive U.S. cyber strategy. Atlantic Council. Retrieved August 5, 2022, from: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/victory-reimagined/
Snow, D. M. (1979). Current nuclear deterrence thinking: An overview and review. International Studies Quarterly: A Publication of the International Studies Association, 23(3), 445–486. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600176
Stoutland, P., & Pitts-Kiefer, S. (2018). Nuclear weapons in the new cyber age: Report of the cyber-nuclear weapons study group. Nuclear Threat Initiative. http://media.nti.org/documents/Cyber_report_finalsmall.pdf
U.S. Cyber Command. (2018). Achieve and maintain cyberspace superiority: Command vision for U.S. cyber command. United States Cyber Command. Retrieved February 18, 2022, from: https://www.cybercom.mil/Portals/56/Documents/USCYBERCOM%20Vision%20April%202018.pdf
Van, D. A., Assante, M., & Stoutland, P. (2016). Outpacing cyber threats: Priorities for cyber security at nuclear facilities. IAEA. Retrieved August 10, 2022, from https://media.nti.org/documents/IAEA_Conf_2016_Outpacing_Cyber_Threats_Van_Dine.pdf
White House report on cyber deterrence policy. (2015). Federal News Network. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Report-on-Cyber-Deterrence-Policy-Final.pdf
Williams, B. D. (2017). Meet the scholar challenging the cyber deterrence paradigm. Fifth Domain. Retrieved February 18, 2022, from: https://www.fifthdomain.com/home/2017/07/19/meet-the-scholar-challenging-the-cyber-deterrence-paradigm/
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Cyberpolitik Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
